The official presidential campaign was launched in Armenia. Russia pays a little attention to this process but in vain.
On February 19 a president is going to be elected in our ally and partner state. Moreover, these elections with their intrigues and persons running remind us a lot of the upcoming elections in Russia. The current governmental candidate Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan has a great chance to win the race. As in our country, the basis of the executive power is the economic factor. Robert Kocharyan’s team came to power 10 years ago when Armenia was in a desperate state, such as total destruction of the economy, poverty, dark and cold years. Today Armenia’s economy, which is deprived of any energy resources and other reserves, is one of the most progressively developing economies in the world. The economic growth of the last year amounted to 13.6%, which is one of the highest on the planet. The monetary incomes of the population have grown by 24.7% in the conditions when the inflation fits in the old dream of Russia – 6%. The past parliamentary elections showed the support of the population to the current course of the government. That is when the governmental party, the Republican Party headed by Serzh Sargsyan and the Prosperous Armenia Party, headed by Gagik Tsarukyan made the majority in Armenia’s Parliament. At present the position of the government has got even more strengthened as the two major parties are nominating a single presidential candidate. Tsarukyan endorses Serzh Sargsyan. According to the most recent polls 47.5% (including the swing voters and the ones, who can’t vote yet) of the population is going to vote for Serzh Sargsyan, which is going to guarantee his victory in the first round. During the decade of the progress Armenia has been attaining self-confidence, people walk more proudly and confidently. Yerevan looks like a huge construction site. The governmental candidate and his experts/image-makers don’t have to think very long when preparing a campaign ad for Serzh Sargsyan. The Prime Minister travels around the country and shows to people the achievements of Armenia of the past years, such as gasification of buildings, road and other kind of construction as well as the success of the poverty reduction program. He cannot be blamed of lack of experience of weakness. Prior to occupying the post of the premier Sargsyan has headed almost all the law-enforcing structures of the country. In many cases the achievements of Karabagh war are connected with Sargsyan. During the past weeks he has been traveling among voters and that he Sragsyan has gained an image of a more proximate and popular leader. During the campaign the candidate concentrate a lot on the relations with Russia and the West. It is hard to notice any anti-Russian mood in Armenia. There people connect their hope and future with our country. However, neither can one see anti-western mood especially if you take into account the huge influence of the Armenia Diaspora (USA, France). The Prime-Minister is concerned as a pro-Russian politician and that is totally fair. Sargsyan has known Putin for a long time and very well. Mutual economic relations were expanded with Russia. The trade circulation amounted 63% within one year. But he doesn’t close the doors to the West. This fact excludes the anti-Sargsyan campaign of the Diaspora, which took place during the elections of many post-Soviet states. It will be quite difficult not to win the race in these conditions. I think that the opposition will have an opportunity for a victory if the government pays a lot of attention to them. But at present the most powerful oppositionists are on the same level as Genadi Zyuganov and Vladimir Zhirinovsky. But the list of oppositionists is longer. It includes the former Speaker of the Parliament and former teammate of the government Artur Baghdasaryan, who has suddenly turned into a harsh critic of the incumbent government of Armenia and loyalist of the west (his rating occupies the second place – 13.4%). The 4th place occupies the leader of the National Unity Party Artashes Geghamyan with a 4.7% rating. Former Prime Minister Vazgen Manukyan is also famous in the country, who was close to his victory in the 1996 presidential elections of Armenia (at present he has a 1-2% support). The ARF candidate Vahan Hovhannisyan with a 3% rating is also popular in the country. But of course most of the noise is created by the First President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who is trying to revive almost impossible hope among people of getting rid of the current government. But isn’t it the same if the Russian presidential race proceeded in participation of Mikhail Gorbachev as an opposition candidate (by the way he ran in 1996 but didn’t have mush success) and Boris Yeltsin (which unfortunately is not possible)? I don’t think they would have the chance to win. Ter-Petrosyan is trying to prove the impossible. He wants to prove that he had been a better leader than Kocharyan together with Sargsyan. However, people have hardly forgotten their poverty in the first half of the 90s. It’s noteworthy to say that Levon Ter-Petrosyan had to resign in 1998. That is when he agreed to compromise the NKR by the pressure of the west in order to have normal relations with Turkey. Such things are never forgiven in Armenia. He will also have a hard time in proving that he likes having good relations with Russia, which he is actively trying to do. It is quite known that Ter-Petrosyan who initiated shutting down all the Russian schools in the country. Despite the fact that the rally proceeds extremely actively his rating cannot rise more than 7%, by occupying the third place in the race. Half of the voters will never vote for Ter-Petrosyan. It will also be useless to speak about fairy tales during the campaign, such as doubling of the GDP, pensions, budgets, etc. Is it possible to somehow change the situation? This scenario seems extremely impossible. The first reason is that none of the scenarios is acceptable. Besides that Ter-Petrosyan has the only chance of inclining for the unity of the opposition. During the period of his presidency the Dashnaks were banned in the country and Hovhannisyan was in prison. At present this party is in the parliamentary majority. Manukyan always blames Ter-Petrosyan of stealing his votes during the 1996 presidential elections. Geghamyan more than anyone else criticizes Ter-Petrosyan because it brings him more credit than the criticism of the government. Sargsyan’s opponents won’t succeed in coming to an agreement against Sargsyan. The interest of the Russian Federation in these elections is that Armenia continues remaining a stable and a dynamically developing state and has very constructive relations with our country. And in this strategic aspect Sargsyan’s candidacy is profitable for Moscow and his endorsement will show in the best way. It would be very good to take steps to show actual support to Armenia and first of all economic support.
Vyacheslav Nikonov
President of the “Politika” fund, “Izvestiya”