“Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization” (The Gallup) has conducted public surveys of the upcoming presidential elections in Armenia. The Gallup has submitted its findings to the corresponding political parties. The results of the polls, which concern separate candidates or parties, were submitted to them only.
This is the Gallup’s principle how it works. As for the mentioned information, the right to publish or discover that information vests in those parties or candidates only. The Gallup has included 13 politicians and parties in the lists. To note, the survey was ordered by the International Republican Institute, which was supported by USAID. Media representatives have asked those political powers to discover the results of the surveys in order to find out how the votes have been allocated. The ARP has published the information concerning their candidate, according to which 29% of the people said that they would elect Serzh Sargsyan if the elections were organized on that Sunday. According to the information of Legal State party, their candidate Arthur Baghdasaryan is in the second place (11%). The leader of “Heritage” party, Raffi Hovhannisyan is in the third place (9%). They also said that 12% have said that if their candidate were not nominated, they would elect Raffi Hovhannisyan. The leader of National Unity party Artashes Geghamyan is in the fourth place (7%). Tigran Karapetyan has received 5%, and Vazgen Manukyan – 4% (the 5th and 6th places correspondingly). The Armenian Revolutionary Federation and Levon Ter-Petrosyan have refused to discover that information; however rumors say that Levon Ter-Petrosyan has received 3% or less – 2%. The political powers which refused to discover that information said that the reason they didn’t want to do so was that the Gallup had informed them that the mentioned information was not subject to discovering. “Certainly, it is clear that the political powers, which ratings are not high, don’t want to discover that information,” Aravot newspaper writes.
The Gallup, which is a famous American organization, is not like Aharon Adibekyan’s office. The Gallup exists since 1936 and has conducted surveys and public polls in the United States and many other countries and during its existence it has correctly predicted the outcome of 15 elections out of 16, including the elections of many American presidents. Today most of the political powers and candidates are suspicious about any activities which are out of their interests. For instance, if the Gallup said that the opposition has received the 100% of the people’s vote, they would praise this organization much. Thus, the politicians are not objective in their estimations. Recently someone told me that he has decided to keep far from politics and said, “When I read newspapers I see how much people and political activists may lie. Basing on interest only the opposition presents the country as in the hell, and the authorities – as in the paradise. Everyone says that they are coming to save Armenia. Black revolutionary jobs are presented under the cover of ideologies such as in favor of people, in favor of Armenia, in favor of children… That is not true. Do the supporters of Levon want to say that they haven’t violated the elections in 1996, that Vazgen Manukyan was not elected, that Vazgen Sargsyan has not said that whatever happens Vazgen Manukyan will not become president? They may have forgotten, but now when I read what they say, I laugh”. This is the way many people are thinking to the extent that people think about the same thing without asking each other’s opinion. Let’s bring a practical example. Armenia has purchased an aircraft, which will serve the president. The ANM should have known about the fact that the president’s aircraft was very old, which was a TU134 Russian aircraft made in 1977 and has served Ter-Petrosyan too. It is not only dangerous, but also it is not able to fly long distances and many European airports don’t serve such aircrafts, thus the president could fly to such countries only after a specific message asking to accept our president’s aircraft. Concerning this fact the supporters of Levon Ter-Petrosyan say, “Rumors say that it has not been included in any state entity financial balance. The reason is the fact that whenever needed Kocharyan and his relatives are going to leave Armenia by that airplane so that no one can demand them to return the airplane in the future. The newly bought aircraft has not been reflected in any entity’s financial statements.” It is a very simple campaign populism, which would not be used even by the populism master Arthur Baghdasaryan. They say this despite the fact that just on the day of purchasing the airplane the government of Armenia made a decision to include the aircraft in the list of assets of the presidential office with its initial price of purchase. Notwithstanding who the president is in the future our country should be represented in the world in a duly manner and the president should have a good airplane. This is a poor campaign method and such methods have been used by the authorities too when they reminded the dark and cold years.
The Armenian government has bought the airplane to serve for the official needs of the future president. Now about the Gallup. The United States always do their estimations basing on the public opinion. As for Armenia, it depends on the situation or it is done whenever there is a need. Certainly, it is hard for the opposition to accept such results. They know that their rating is not high and don’t like speaking about it. They have many followers too, but to have many followers does not mean that the society may follow them generally. It looks like a situation when local newspapers or TV companies, which have few viewers and readers, speak in the name of the society. The polls conducted by the Gallup are serving as a specific filter in the political field of the country. Certainly, it does not mean that the rating of the authorities is very high. The most interesting thing is that, as we have written, the most important information provided by the Gallup concerns the undecided people, thus according to them 23% haven’t made a decision yet who to vote for. The Gallup has included alternative questions too such as “I don’t know / no answer”, “other candidate”, “no one”. The proportion of answers to these questions are as the following: “other candidate” – 1%, “no one” – 14%, “I don’t know / no answer” – 8%. 23% is a very important resource, which the political powers have to attract and convince to vote for them. The political parties should not attract that constituency by black PR or reminding each other about certain facts, but by presenting good programs and offering good ideas. The political parties don’t have time to argue those results and now they should think of the ways how they can get more votes from these 23%. Are they still suspicious about the fact that a big part of the society is undecided and they haven’t decided yet who to vote for?