Eight months prior to the presidential elections in Armenia, two contradicting and radical approaches dominate. According to one of them, there is no alternative as to who the next president of Armenia will be; the other approach claims that Serge Sargsyan doesn’t have any chance to be elected. In fact, the two approaches are wrong. Even if we consider that the parliamentary elections were fair, it means that the RPA gained 32% of the vote. But one doesn’t get elected president with 32% of the vote.
In this case, the social polls are in general senseless. First, because such polls in Armenia are never objective. Secondly, people don’t trust the pollsters, thinking that they always lie. So how can we find out if Sargsyan has a chance or not? We are not going to speak about the unification of the opposition because the problem is, in fact, not the persons. The issue is quite clear. If Serge Sargsyan becomes president, then almost nothing is going to be changed (except for a few inessential amendments in the administration, etc.) in Armenia for the coming 5 years. And if someone else get elected then there are going to be radical changes (either positive or negative, depending on who the person is). Thus, before making a choice, we must clearly answer at least two simple questions. 1. Do we need changes? 2. What will happen if changes take place?
Now let’s discuss sector by sector. The first one is, of course, the Karabakh conflict. At this moment our society is not interested very much in this issue. That’s why we should consider if we need changes. In this case, we must really contemplate whether we need changes in the conditions when the pressure of the international community for now is just words and no definite actions, and Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan is confessing that Armenian can develop in the conditions of a blockade for over 100 years. Let’s go to the next question. What will happen if we don’t change the policy of the past 10 years regarding Karabakh conflict resolution? Theoretically, three options are possible here. Either the world miraculously changes its attitude and recognizes Karabakh just like it recognized Kosovo, or Azerbaijan gets bored of the conflict and the negotiations and gives up on the territories, or the war restarts. The possibility of the Kosovo version is small, just between us. There is one simple reason for that. If you remember, NATO "just slightly" bombed Serbia to give independence to Kosovo. And you don’t know why, but the West so far doesn’t have any wish to bomb Baku. The version that Azerbaijan will sooner or later forget about the territories is almost impossible too. So only the war version remains. By the way, there is no need to avoid war at any cost. We just need to realize that the final result of the current policy is going to be war.
Let’s talk about the economy. Do we need changes in this sector? Yes, of course, we do. We need to fight against corruption and bring the economy out of the "shade." All this, by the way, is mentioned in the RPA platform. But the fact is that during the past years the government hasn’t done anything, or almost nothing, to prevent the negative processes in Armenia. Therefore there is great possibility that nothing will be changed if the government stays the same. Or it will be changed the way it has changed so far. It means that the major businesses will stay in the shade, and the small and medium businesses will be treated by all kinds of economic theories, in other words, state rackets. Thus let’s talk about the second question. What will happen if nothing changes in the economy (that is, the current situation remains)? The AMD will keep revaluating, the level of exports will be reduced, the level of imports will increase, Armenia will become one of the most expensive countries in the world (Yerevan is on the list of 20 most expensive cities), and so on. Of course, this will not happen overnight. There are still useful mining resources in the territory of Armenia, and money is being sent from abroad. Thus there is still time to think. The dagger hasn’t reached the bone yet. Thus we can still admire the double-digit economic growth and leave the presently conducted policy the same.
This way or another there are issues. And it would be better if the Armenian society, instead of focusing on persons, figured out if Armenia needs cosmetic or radical changes. This will show whether Serge Sargsyan has an alternative or not.