The issue of the Karabakh conflict may be considered closed, at least for several years. The OSCE mediators are confused and are looking at each other in surprise, thinking what there is new they can propose. As for the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, they seem to be satisfied. Some Armenian analysts say there won’t be a war till 2025 (it is a pity that they don’t inform concrete dates); others say that we should use the opportunity provided by the suspension of the process and inhabit the liberated territories (it is a pity that they don’t point out where they can find such people or whether they are going to multiply them by a Xerox machine or otherwise), and some others assure that Armenia still can have double-digit economic development (it is a pity that they don’t point out exact figures and say which fields are developing so fast), etc.
Now let’s not discuss this topic any more; let’s imagine that the issue is closed for several years, and move forward. Now let’s discuss the issue of how the country will develop during the upcoming years. There are two main factors here that should be discussed, which are demography and economy. Let’s start from the economy.
It is not a secret to anyone that the double-digit economic growth mark is provided due to construction only. We wonder whether construction will continue growing so rapidly in the future too. No, the volume of construction works will not grow so fast. This tendency is already seen now. The reason is the fact that in parallel with building houses in Yerevan, the population does not grow. Who will buy apartments? The buildings that are called elite are empty. Furthermore, in the rich districts of the suburbs of Yerevan, there are many wonderful houses, but they are empty. People don’t live there. It means that the construction volume will rapidly go down, and soon. Accordingly, we will not have a double digit growth mark soon.
Maybe the process of the national currency stabilization is going to stop. No, the representatives of this field assure that the “existing tendencies” will continue at least during the several upcoming years. Definitely there is not any need to explain what it means for domestic production. We may present one example only. Recently the price of potatoes in the market unexpectedly increased up to 400 AMD, and some people imported potatoes from Georgia and Turkey. Why? Because the price of potatoes is almost one dollar, and it is more profitable to import than to cultivate here. Furthermore, “as ill luck” agriculture is going to be taxed starting from 2009 … Certainly, they may “in favor of national interests” prohibit importing potatoes (by the way, this is what the government did), but such double digit economic growth may be provided only on paper, but not in reality.
Now let’s discuss the issue of demography. Even the government confesses that Armenia may be faced with a demographic collapse. The population is not increasing in Yerevan, and it is going down in the regions. Why? Don’t Armenians like to establish families or don’t they know how to make babies? They do, but this is something that is impossible to control with administrative or governmental tools. Let’s imagine that a young man aged 25 has a good job and gets good money according to the standards of Armenia. For instance, let’s say he gets about $500 per month. Calculations show that if he gets married at the age of 25 and saves as much money as possible, he will be able to buy an apartment at least… in 30 years, i.e. when he becomes 55 and has grandchildren. We wonder whether people will get married realizing the mentioned risk. Furthermore, note that there aren’t so many young men in Armenia that have a stabile income of $500 per month. This fact means that the demographic regression tends to grow and the “existing tendencies” don’t seem to be changing.
However, there is no reason to worry. It is better; the less people there are, the easier it is to organize and control them. Accordingly, Armenia will continue being the most developed country of the region. As the Armenian traditional political ideology has been optimistic so far, something “may change later”.