Now one of the most discussed issues is the issue of forming a new government. At the same time, it seems that the key issue has already been decided; the government will be formed by coalition. In a word, ARP will “willingly” give portfolios to PA and ARF too. Now let’s try to find out what the reasons of this “willingness” are.
It is clear that there will be an interim government, which will work, at maximum, for 9 months. It is also clear that Serge Sargsyan will run for president. If he wins, Armenia will have a new prime minister (accordingly, a new government). Notwithstanding, if he loses, the new president will not leave him in the prime minister’s position, thus we will have a new government again. In a word, this government will work for nine months, maximum. Furthermore, as it is not possible to implement any serious programs during these nine months, it becomes clear that parties are now struggling only for positions for the purpose of getting “prepared well” for the upcoming presidential elections.
In fact, during these nine months the goals of the potential coalition members will be different. What does ARP need? It needs to fully control the governmental tools (not the portfolios, but the real tools), but act in a manner so that ARF and PA don’t “maneuver” much in 2008. ARF understands that the portfolios it is offered now are in fact a bribe (actually they don’t give real governmental tools, but an opportunity to “make money”). Thus, ARF is trying to get as much “bribe” as it can. Even more, it does so as it will play a big role during the presidential elections of 2008 (we will discuss this issue later). As for PA, its goals are quite different. Their main goal will not be “making money”, but creating a good image among the public. Accordingly, they will try to take areas, spheres, where they can succeed and show that “they are not republicans and everything is good in their sphere”. In a word, PA needs mostly a PR campaign.
Now let’s discuss the presidential elections. It will be very difficult for Serge Sargsyan to win during the first phase of the presidential elections; it is almost impossible. Furthermore, the opposition may unite in the second phase. So, what to do? Which is the political power that can take votes from the opposition? In all aspects, the best power is ARF. This party can become an oppositional power just a couple of months before the elections and nominate its own candidate. Certainly, ARF understands that this step will be a big favor for Serge Sargsyan, and asks for its “payment” now. In a word, we believe that the experts that say ARF wants to get “good portfolios” now, to not to run for president in 2008, are not correct. It is the opposite; ARF asks for positions and in turn promises to nominate a candidate during the presidential elections, take votes from the opposition, and do a favor for Serge Sargsyan.
Does this mean that the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections is predictable? Certainly it is not, because the upcoming nine months will be full of many interesting events. The fact that the OSCE chairs recently met with Serge Sargsyan is not by chance. Before, they used to either meet with the president or with the foreign affairs minister. This fact means that the international community expects specific actions to settle the Karabakh conflict directly from Sargsyan. This means that there may be unpredictable changes in the inner political life of the country. It is logical that Sargsyan will try not to take the responsibility for all those things alone, but also with PA and ARF.
In other words, the portfolios of ministers or positions of regional management board chairs don’t matter much. The core issue lies deep inside and it is the reason why the negotiations are so serious.