Certainly the unexpected death of prime minister Andranik Margaryan will change some things in the inner political system of Armenia. Definitely there won’t be any changes in the economic sector of the country since the same government continues working. As for the political inner system, it will be changed as the leader of one of the most powerful parties of the country passed away just one month before the parliamentary elections.
What changes are expected? It depends on the future developments inside the ARP and in the “ARP sphere of influence”. Certainly, in other countries such incidents would unite their party members and oblige them take more responsibilities, but the case is always different in Armenia. Firstly, the human factor places a higher role in Armenia, the most aggressive part of the society that was against the ruling powers performed a higher significant respect to the leader of the ruling party. Secondly, the ARP is not a party that consists of only one “level” (or group), but different ones. Everyone knows about these groups: old advocates of ideologies (old guards), state officials that have joined the governing power (they used to be members of the Communistic party in the Soviet period, tomorrow may join another party) and, as it is said, “ones that don’t know the Armenian language well” (this is not our definition).
Certainly, there might have been conflicts of interest in the team, anyway it worked effectively (the old guards advocated the ideology, the officials were carrying out the real management in their places, etc.).
Now the problem is whether Serge Sargsyan will be able to cope with the team and keep the three component groups united.
In fact, this is a very difficult problem due to two main reasons. First, Andranik Margaryan was accepted by the society as the leader of a political party that has concrete ideologies, but Serge Sargsyan is accepted not as a politician, but as an official that has huge financial and economic resources and other tools. Second, as there were some tactical disagreements between Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan (or ARP and “prosperous Armenia”), it is clear that this case will be “indirectly” used to weaken the ARP. By the way, they have real opportunities to do that since there are people among the ARP leaders that prefer keeping with Kocharyan.
In other words, Serge Sargsyan will have to become an ideology bearer too and pay more attention to the issues inside the party. It will be very difficult for him as he will need much time; he will have to manage the army in parallel with carrying the prime minister’s responsibilities and meanwhile make sure that there aren’t any “new factions” inside the party. In this case they can’t “distribute the work” as the inner political situation is very instable and it is very hard to find very loyal people. If Serge Sargsyan copes with this problem, the ARP will be the first place after the upcoming elections.
What will happen if Serge Sargsyan fails to keep the team united? In this case the ARP will not have the necessary number of votes and it will be officially described as a consequence of the prime minister’s death and the fact that the ARP is confused. This will create a good opportunity for Kocharyan to maneuver after the elections. For instance, the ARP may become the “junior partner” of the coalition or will not be included in it generally (“Prosperous Armenia”, ARF and if necessary a couple of other parties may provide majority in the parliament without the ARP).
Anyway, it is expected that there will be new developments and changes in the inner political life in two-three days. There isn’t much time remained before the elections so that either there won’t be any changes or the changes will occur very fast. At least, everyone understands that the issue of the presidential elections of 2008 depends on the outcome of the upcoming parliamentary elections, which will take place in a confused environment.