If the ARF (Dashnaks) manage to receive a huge number of votes during the upcoming parliamentary elections, they may be a part of the future coalition. The top authorities have agreed that the third political power to form a coalition together with the ARP and Prosperous Armenia will be the ARF. As the ARF is periodically threatening that it will become opposition if it does not receives enough votes, the authorities don’t hurry to discuss the proportion of the future government and their role in it after the elections.
However, as they have already decided that most of the votes will be shared between the ARP and Prosperous Armenia, we may imagine what the shape of the future government is going to be. According to our information, the authorities don’t want yet to discuss the issue of portfolios and are waiting for May 13 to decide which political power will make a coalition with the ARP and Prosperous Armenia. Notwithstanding, some portfolios have already been distributed.
Thus, after the upcoming parliamentary elections prime minister Andranik Margaryan will not be the head of the government any more. He will become NA speaker. Even though the president’s office wants to see David Harutyunyan in this position, it can’t happen since neither the ARP nor the prosperous Armenia trust him. Furthermore, NA speaker is usually elected by the parliament, and as we were informed most of the parliamentarians don’t like him and are not going to advocate him. By the way, according to our information ARP members are very angry at David Harutyunyan for announcing about the intention to include him in the proportional lists without informing them beforehand despite the fact that they had told that they would publish the proportional lists after their board meeting only. Our sources of information assure that if the president’s office did not petition the ARP, they would not include David Harutyunyan in their lists.
The ARP board chair, RA defense minister Serzh Sargsyan will be appointed prime minister after the elections, but there is no information yet who the defense minister will be. According to our information, the rumors that the defense minister’s position will be assigned to Arthur Aghabekyan, who resigned recently from the defense deputy minister’s position and recovered his membership in the ARF, are not true. They have decided that Mr. Aghabekyan will be elected the head of the NA standing commission on defense. By the way, if the existing parliament has six standing commissions, according to the new Constitution it shall have 12 standing commissions. This means that more people can be given positions too. The RA minister of regional management, Hovik Abrahamyan will be assigned the position of the prime minister’s elder deputy, whose rights have been significantly enlarged in the new Constitution. The same sources of information say that transport and connection minister Andranik Manukyan will not be given any portfolios and will be just NA deputy. As for the transport and connection minister’s position, it will be assigned to the existing deputy minister, member of Prosperous Armenia Party Vardan Vardanyan. It is expected that several portfolios, included the positions of health care and social insurance ministers will be given to the ARF. If the ARF manages to receive a big number of votes, the mentioned positions will remain for them too, plus the existing portfolios they have. If the ARF manages to become opposition, their portfolios will be given to the next political power that will replace them in the coalition. The position of the education minister may be given to the existing head of the NA standing commission on education, science and culture, Hranush Hakobyan. They say that the authorities have talked with the ARF, and they have agreed to give this portfolio to another power this time. Instead of that, the ARF will be given the position of the head of the NA standing commission on education, culture and science, which will be assigned to Levon Mkrtchyan.
Also, the head of the state board off civic services, Arevik Petrosyan, who is given the 11th place in the proportional lists of the Prosperous Armenia, will resign from his position and will be given another position in the executive branch. According to our information, she will be appointed as deputy to the Justice minister. However, it is not clear yet who the Justice minister will be (it depends on how the problem of the speaker’s position will be solved). Logically, if the parliamentarian majority does not approve the candidacy of David Harutyunyan, president Kocharyan will re-appoint him in the Justice minister’s position. As for the economy minister’s position, they have not decided whom to assign it yet. However, we have been informed that member of Prosperous Armenia Party Vardan Bostanjyan is interested in that position (he dropped his membership in the ARP several years ago after the previous parliament failed to elect him as the head of the standing commission on finance and budget issues).
Even though minister of culture Hasmik Poghosyan was appointed in that position due to the ULP, she managed to announce that she was not appointed due to the ULP, but by the president and she is going to stay in that position till the elections of 2008. However, they have already decided that the culture minister’s portfolio will be given to the Prosperous Armenia. They say it has been decided that this position will be given to the existing head of Yerevan Arts State Academy, Aram Isabekyan, who is the second candidate in the proportional lists of the PA.
According to our information, these are the arrangements that have been taken so far and the issue of the other portfolios depends on which the next coalition member will be. The potential votes that the potential third coalition member may get shall decide their share in the government. As for the opposition, the same concerns them too and they will be involved in a couple of standing commissions only.