The “Jane’s” information group released an insight, predicting that in 2007, Armenia will most probably be more isolated from the South Caucasus region.
“This year, there may be serious changes in Russia’s line of conduct towards the South Caucasus because Azerbaijan’s energetic resources and Georgia’s continuous strive towards the West help the two break free from Moscow. At the same time, Armenia will become more isolated from the region. This may have a negative influence on the separatist conflicts in the region; the tension will continue and will intensify in the case of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict during the year,” predict the experts of the information group.
According to Radio Liberty, it’s also stated in the analysis that “the increasing need of Azerbaijan to be the energy supplier in Europe with the Baku-Jeyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Erzrum gas pipeline and security and Baku’s desire to cooperate with the U.S. and NATO may lead to larger international community involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue in 2007, which in turn may be decisive for keeping the peace throughout the year.” “In any case, if the attention of the West turns into an advantage for Azerbaijan, Armenia, in response to that, will most probably establish more intimate ties with Russia. As a result, both sides will be more entrenched in the two oppositional camps with the individual and competing international supporters,” say experts of the information group. “This will lead the region to a dilemma; the great danger and possible conflict will confront the large potential for development and settlement. In any case, most probably outside forces will decide which course the South Caucasus will take in 2007. Leaving the region to the mercy of fate is not in the interest of anyone” concluded the “Jane’s” experts.