The most important political development in this period is the announcement of the president of ANM (Armenian National Movement) party, Aram Manukyan, who said that they are going to be involved in politics actively and if they fail to come to power during the parliamentary elections of 2007, they will do their best to at least have an influence on the political field.
We understand that the ANM can’t reach its goals alone, which was said by A. Manukyan too. We wonder which political parties may collaborate with the ANM and support them be involved in politics actively. “Republic”, “Heritage” parties, “The Liberal Progressive Party of Armenia” (LPPA) and the National Democratic Union are potential partners for the ANM. Why are the mentioned parties considered as potential partners for the ANM?
First, the ANM is not going to collaborate with the powers that have pro-Russian policy. Besides that, “Justice” alliance and “National Unity” are not in a good situation and the ANM may not join heads with these political powers since it is not good for its reputation and political image. As for the abovementioned parties, they comply with the mentioned standards; they are active and are not pro-Russian.
It is no secret that the ANM and “Republic” parties are in very close relations. A. Manukyan has said that the “Republic” collaborates with them actively and always advocates their policy.
In the recent period Vazgen Manukyan has spoken much about a new oppositional format and hasn’t given any clarifications.
“Heritage” and LPPA parties have spoken about their intention to make a new oppositional format, which would have the same ideology.
Taking into account the abovementioned information we may assume that the mentioned powers are working actively now to be united. However, the mentioned list is not all yet and there may be more Western-orientated parties too. In this framework, we should not forget about “Rule of Law” party, which is actively involved in the opposition and is trying to lead the opposition.
However, these parties may be faced with a big problem that seems impossible to solve. Who is going to lead the potential alliance? Following the announcement of A. Manukyan, former president of Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, made an announcement, where the former president said that he didn’t like the decision of the ANM to be involved in politics actively so much, which shows that L. Ter-Petrosyan may not return to politics. We think that it is possible and the former president may return to politics any time he wants and have enough influence on political processes. In other words, they have found a potential leader for the oppositional alliance:
Vazgen Manukyan may be competent enough to create a good image of the alliance. On the one hand, this politician is considered to be one of the most competent oppositional politicians. On the other hand, he heads the polling lists in different web pages. However, most of the oppositional powers don’t accept him and think that he is not that “big”.
Raffi Hovhannisyan has worked as foreign affairs minister and has supported the international recognition of the Armenian independence worldwide in a short period. Besides that, he heads the national strategic center, which shows that he has very good strategic analysis skills. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that together with the mentioned positive factors Raffi Hovhannisyan is not accepted in our society as a “local” politician yet.
Arthur Baghdasaryan is known for his oratory skills and western political orientation. Taking into account the rumors saying that the U.S. has made a decision to advocate A. Baghdasaryan and take care of the other oppositional powers for the purpose of bringing him up, we may assume that he has real opportunities to become president. Moreover, recently he gave an interview, where he said that the president of Armenia must be a citizen of Armenia. However, he may have difficulties since he has been a part of the ruling coalition and was populist, besides that, he may be considered as a politician which is not loyal because of the fact that communist Sanatruk Sahakyan and his advocates have joined their party.
We can continue this list of leaders since the heads of all the oppositional parties tend to become president.
Besides that, the key factor in this process is the fact whether this process started spontaneously or was stipulated by western powers. It is highly possible that the western powers play their roles in this process.