“We are all waiting for Hoagland’s possible resignation and that would be the easiest solution to the current situation” said one of the Armenian diplomats, who requested to remain anonymous, at an official meeting at the Senate, when speaking about the uproar dealing with the new US Ambassador to Armenia.
The staff of the RA Embassy in Washington and Ambassador Tatul Markarian have not yet provided any comments regarding the difficulties surrounding the “appointment” of Richard Hoagland as ambassador. And this is an understandable position. If even once the embassy demonstrates that it can intervene and to a certain extent control the activities of the Armenian American organizations, then the State Department will remember that and, it is possible that they will make similar requests, something which Yerevan does not want at all. But to think that the repeated postponement of Hoagland’s approval is due only to the activism of the Armenian American organizations would be inaccurate. We are just lucky.
The congressional elections are next November; and as a result all congressmen are clearly interested in working with their constituents. This is one of the most intense times for populism. And no one would dare at such a time to refuse a “small” request from the influential Armenian organizations. Moreover, very influential congressmen are involved in the “Hoagland case”, such as John Kerry and Joe Biden, both of whom are going to prepare for the presidential race. In that sense, the “Hoagland case” is both convenient and timely.
And what kind of a future awaits Hoagland? Here is what we were able to find out from our sources at the State Department. First, although not very likely, but nevertheless it can not be disregarded, is the possibility that Hoagland at his third try will be able to collect the requisite number of votes in the Senate, and be appointed as ambassador. However, taking into consideration the active cooperation between the Armenian organizations and the Democrat Congressmen, the chances of success for this American diplomat are gradually dwindling. In addition, during the last hearing he explicitly said that he is expressing not only the opinion of the White House, but his own personal opinion. With that he put himself in a worse position. If at first the Armenian Americans were against Ambassador Evans’ recall, now they are also directly against Hoagland’s candidacy.
Consequently, Hoagland will most probably not succeed in getting appointed as ambassador in September either. In that case, the Bush Administration may use the period which falls between the old congress and the newly-elected congress, and without the approval of the legislative body directly appoint Hoagland as ambassador. It is true, according to American law, that he will not receive any salary and his term will be limited to only two years, but that would be one way to end this long-drawn-out saga.
The third option would be self recusal. Hoagland can say that after all this he does not want the position and he may resign. The probability of this third option is low, but it also can not be disregarded. Moreover, everyone knows that Hoagland’s “better half” is a man, a Russian. To what extent the Armenian public will tolerate this fact, it is difficult to predict. It is important to note that in Tajikstan no one paid any attention to that.
In short, Hoagland has turned out to be a real headache for the White House, and Evans, an undesirable precedent; if an US Ambassador has once uttered the word “genocide”, then this is a “test”, which the Armenian Americans would like to make mandatory for all future ambassadors. In any event, both the current and the potential diplomats have packed their bags. And both face very uncertain futures. One is threatened by the end of his diplomatic career, and the other by the prospect of becoming an ambassador.