Some of them say that by opening the border Armenia will open its third way to the world and find new markets for its products. Others say that after opening the border Turkish products may enter the Armenian market and force local producers out of it. In spite of these contradicting approaches, all of them agree that in the 21st century countries should not have closed borders with their neighbors.
Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993. In the same year it placed an embargo on Armenian products. According to the information of the RA statistical services, in 2003 Armenia exported products worth $1,1 million to Turkey and imported products worth $36,7 million. There was a huge difference between imports and exports before 2003 too. Even though these two countries don’t have diplomatic relations, trade capacities between them are growing. Armenians have economical interests and they import products from Turkey. On the one hand Turkish products are cheaper, and on the other hand they have better quality than the products imported from Iran or China. The figures shown above are official. It is said that the real figures are 4-5 times more than the mentioned ones. Besides that, many Armenians spend their vacation in Anatolia. Armenia has flights to Turkey: Yerevan-Anatolia, Yerevan-Istanbul. Besides that, it is possible to go to Turkey by car through Georgia. It turns out that the main problem concerns opening the railway connecting Armenia with Turkey. Armenia needs Gyumri-Kars railway to open new markets for it.
So, what will happen if the border is opened?
“If the border is closed and Armenia imports such a huge capacity of products, do you imagine what will happen if the border is opened?” says president of Armenian producers’ union Vazgen Safaryan, “We should protect our producers from Turkish products. Besides that, most of our export goes to CIS countries. We export only alcoholic drinks, which are sold in CIS countries. We are interested in opening the railway to Abkhazia. It will save our producers”.
“Turkish products have been around in the Armenian market for a long time. They compete with foreign and domestic products and the target is our economy, but it was not able to occupy our market at all”, says the chairman of Armenian producers’ and businessmen’s union, Arsen Ghazaryan, “Furthermore, during these 4-5 years, Turkish products made way for Armenian food products and European products to enter the Armenian market. There are no reasons to be afraid that Armenian market will be full of Turkish products, which may leave Armenian products out because we managed to overcome that danger in 90s. Our businessmen are already successful and import products from remote countries as well. Armenia has never had problems with importing products from Turkey. After opening the border we will not have any danger of occupying our market or being left out, but instead, we will have normal competitive relations such as other countries have with their neighbors”.
A couple of years ago the head of AEPLAC center, Tigran Jrbashyan conducted a research and based on the results, he found out that opening the border cannot have a serious influence on Armenian economy. According to him, in one year the GDP of Armenia will grow by 0,67% only, export – by 5,23% and during five years – 2,7% and 17,7% accordingly. All these factors are a reason for people to think that there is no need to open the border because it will not be that good for Armenia. We can live and develop without it for more 100 years, and our businessmen are afraid of Turkish products.
“After opening the border the number of Turkish products in our market will grow rapidly and will compete with our domestic products” says economist Edward Aghadjanov, “our oligarchs are not interested in that. There are calculations that show that opening the border will lead to small development. I think that the mentioned research was done by their order. Oligarchs that are monopolists on importing products from abroad will lose their places in the market when they compete with Turkish producers. As a result of that process, people will benefit because the prices of products will go down. How are we going to compete with the products of developed countries if we are afraid of competing with Turkish products? Turkey is not so developed as European countries. How are we going to compete with European countries? I believe that the mentioned protectionism was ordered by oligarchs so as not to cut down their super profits”.
After opening the border, besides creating economical competition in our domestic market and opening a new market for selling our products, we will also have more economical effects such as roads to Europe and other indirect benefits. Besides that, it is very important for us to enter the Arabic markets as well. According to specialists, during the Soviet era Armenia exported 70% of its electronic and other products to Middle East
“To this day people in Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and other Arabic countries remember the Armenian products of those times”, says Edward Aghadjanov, “If the border is reopened, our businessmen may recover those ways of export: Besides that, we will have an opportunity and a path opening new markets for us in India, Pakistan and Greece. We have forgotten about that opportunity. We are going to enter such markets that will not demand strong competition skills from us. The markets of those countries are not like the markets of Germany, where Armenians can’t compete. Why should we think of only producing drinks? We have other potentials as well”.
Gyumri-Kars railway will make Armenia a transit country. Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and other CIS countries may transport their cargo through our territory. As for the Abkhazia railway, it will not benfit Armenia much because it will not make Armenia a transit country.
“Trains will come and reach Gyumri, but will have to stop there because the road is closed”, says E. Aghadjanov, “The Abkhazia railway can’t substitute the Kars-Gyumri railway. Besides that, the trade capacities that Armenia has with CIS countries doesn’t exceed 20-21% of its potential. Over 40% of the mentioned trade potential is aimted towards Europe. Besides that, according to official statistics, our trade capacities with the US have increased as well”.
We can import sugar, oil products and other goods through Turkey, improve competition in our market and thus develop the economy. But as soon as we find out who imports those goods and what share of their super profits they may lose if the border is reopened, we understand why some powers are against opening the border. Here they ignore political interests and consider their own economical interests only.
In spite of all the abovementioned facts and ideas, the head of the Armenian-Turkish economical development commission, Arsen Ghazaryan assures that the border may be opened today or never. The societies and governments of these two countries, especially those of Turkey, are not ready resign the contacts between the two states and improving them. In spite of everything, soon or later we will be faced with that issue regardless of whether our businessmen or our neighbors like that idea or not.