1. Recently, two events shook citizens living in a politically unaware Yerevan:
a. The announcement made by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen (July 3, 2006)
b. The announcement made by director of the “Crisis Group” Caucasian project Sabina Freizer (July 7, 2006).
It’s obvious that the announcements had to do with the Karabakh conflict. They’re really about the conflict negotiations labyrinth and the unpredictable future…
In order to get a full picture of what’s going on, we need to bring up a couple of questions so that it will be clear as to what kind of chaos political figures and average citizens of Yerevan and Baku are in. Do the doubts of those respectable organizations and experts (as they state, “we can no longer fantasize in order to understand the bases of the settlement and sum it all up”) serve as a firm basis, and if yes, how? Also, where is the evidence? What’s the logic behind the analyses and how real are the results?
2. I’m not just making up these questions as I go. These are questions concerning not only the Armenians in Armenia or Karabakh, but also Armenians around the world. This concerns our split homeland and the RESTORATION OF THE ARMENIAN LAND, which was destructed and left in ruins during and after WWI by the recreated Kemal Turkey and the USSR.
The restoration of the nation will help each Armenian no matter where he lives. It will help him feel inner dignity and get his inner freedom back…The Karabakh stolen from Armenia, used and taken advantage of for decades by the USSR is part of the system, which the Armenian people managed to restore at the moment when the USSR collapsed.
The decades weren’t able to break the will and spirit of the Armenians of Karabakh and just when they felt the democratic reforms in the USSR, the people did everything they could to set their feet on the ground. Soviet Armenia did everything so that Armenia could start getting back on its feet. Karabakh fought against the Azeri aggression with dignity.
Soviet Armenia and Soviet Azerbaijan ceased to exist after the collapse of the USSR. Soviet Karabakh simply remained Karabakh-the legality of an inseparable part of Armenia during a significant time in Armenian history. A part which had been stolen and split apart. The English and Bolsheviks had reformed Armenia’s state borders. The people responded:
“Enough is enough”.
Nobody, not even the Bolsheviks, were able to break the spirit and freedom of the Armenians of Karabakh because they didn’t want to surrender to the enemy. However, it’s a fact that the Soviet Azerbaijan authorities have always treated the people living in their autonomous regions as enemies.
3. I can say the following: world historical events will repeat. Armenia, just like any ancient country with its rich history (after all, there was a time when Armenia was a great power and played an important role in all countries) will be ready to enrichen world history and protect itself.
4. Sabina Freizer announced that the current situation of the negotiations is nowhere near a conflict settlement or the establishment of peace than it was in 2005 before the meeting in Rambouilleau. The Minsk Group is talking about the results of the negotiations as fiction or a labyrinth. Are they suggesting new intermediaries? I have written about that back in 1997.
Now I would like to ask the following question: what will determine the dangerous course of events? What unusual, extraordinary thing has happened (which we don’t know about) to make the serious analyst of the unknown international organization make these kinds of conclusions? Perhaps there is a new, secret strong vector, which will help the Armenian opposition? Perhaps the securty of the ready oil pipeline is not that important and the Azeri military training going on near the oil pipeline benefits Azerbaijan’s oil buyers. Perhaps the economic and political benefits of that pipeline don’t play a role for Azerbaijan, Georgia or Turkey; not to mention the international consortium and the international oil market. Maybe the Azeri army is so strong now that the conflict will be settled in a matter of weeks. Maybe the Armenian side, with its strong army, has decided to “scare” the opponent, or perhaps the rules of the negotiations have changed and we’re not able to grasp the concept of the arguments and new logic. Perhaps the Minsk Group doesn’t have time on their hands or the intermediaries have just realized that the negotiations between the two presidents is just an act. Maybe the intermediaries don’t know that a delicate and simple conflict can’t be solved just like that (Armenians waited many centuries for events to take place in medieval times and they paid a high price for that). It’s possible that all conflicts of the world have been settled and it’s time to settle the last one remaining. The questions go on and on…
5. One of the most important issues of the Karabakh conflict is that the restoration of Armenia is on a large scale, connected to the Armenian Genocide and in particular Karabakh. However, it seems to me that that’s not included in the negotiations. It’s still not too late to look at the Armenian Genocide in the context of the Karabakh conflict. Here we have a lot of dynamics in the restoration of Armenia and recognition of the Armenian Genocide. The same European countries have recognized the Armenian Genocide during the years of negotiations and that doesn’t touch upon the negotiations process and the Karabakh conflict. The people of Karabakh found the will and strength inside to reunite with Armenia. This is the final result that Armenians see and analysts and experts don’t because the economic factor doesn’t really mean a lot for a people who have been on the verge of extinction. No matter how bad Armenia is, no matter how the authorities are, this highly significant issue is real strength and will for a nation with a 10 million population regardless of where each person lives. Armenia is well-organized as a Diaspora.
6. From 1988 until now, there have been many reforms made in the proposals, arguments, comments and documents regarding the Karabakh conflict. It appears that they will evolve later on too. How could they not talk about restoration of the homeland and the fact that there was a genocide? I hope that the negotiations process goes on strong.
7. As a state, the Armenian Genocide recognition and restoration of the Armenian homeland are CONNECTED, important issues for Armenia. The conceptual perception of those issues and raising those issues at the international level by the Foreign Ministry must be one of the most important issues. I just don’t see that now. The current authorities mut realize the huge spritual, moral, volunteer, intellectual, physical and financial resources spent on the formation and progress and get involved in the negotiations process. Armenia still has to learn that art, but there isn’t much time.
Yerevan, July 9, 2006