According to the “Arminfo” news agency, the RA national statistics service has registered a 10,5% growth mark in the period of January-May compared to the same period of the previous year. We’d like to inform those readers that don’t like numbers that we will write about this breifly, after which we will write about another interesting subject.
We will not write about the economical growth mark because it was expected. Instead of this, we will write about inflation. According to official information, this year the inflation rate is 5,7% compared to last year, and the inflation rate of May was 2,4% compared to the previous month. The registered inflation rate of this year is almost twice (5,7%) than the same mark of last year: the inflation rate of May, 2005 was 2,4% more than the same mark of 2004. The RA Central Bank (CB) says that this is a normal inflation mark. “In fact, inflation rates not only correspond with the foreseen range, but also comply with the foreseen limit of 3%”, writes the refinancing interest rate note of the CB. Time will show whether the predictions of the CB are right or not.
The CB uses the information of the national statistics service for its reports. As of April, 2006, the national statistics service calculates inflation rates on the basis of a new basket of goods, which includes 70 more products and services-making it 470. They have also recalculated the marks of the previous three months on the basis of this new consumer basket.
Please note that there is an interesting fact here: the new marks calculated on the basis of the new basket of goods are very low compared to the previous ones. In a word, the inflation rate that the statistical service (SS) registered in January, 2006 covered 3,6% compared to December, 2005. Please note that in the new version of recalculated inflation rates it covers 2,5%. The inflation rate of February didn’t change after recalculation, but instead of this the mark of March that covered 0,4% now covers 0,1%. This means that the new method of calculations makes the rates go down by 1,4%. This change occurred as a result of adding 70 more services and products to the consumer basket.
You can find the changes of the prices of products and services included in the consumer basket on the web page of SS, but there isn’t any information concerning the dynamics of the new products and services added to the consumer basket. We couldn’t find out from the SS the reason for this. We tried to analyze the numbers and figure out what the matter is, as a result of which we found contradictions and amazing things. For instance, did you know that you have a crystal vase in your consumer basket? What’s even more surprising is that it is not mentioned how big this vase is and the quality. In fact, it turns out that that vase is a very important factor in consumers’ life and the change of its price leads to inflation. For example, telephone conversation prices were not included in the consumer basket before. It turns out that keeping plants in apartments and taking care of them is more expensive than our phone conversations. As for flowers, statisticians look at that very seriously, but it is strange that they write only about cloves.
We can see such things in other parts too. For instance, in one part you can read information about ice-cream generally, and in another part you can read information about only chocolate ice-cream made by “Tamara” company only. As for coffee, which has different prices, they only write an average price.
Cigarettes have a big share in the budget of families with small incomes. We understand that they are right to include several brands of cigarettes, but we don’t understand why they write the Magna cigarette brand with low demand along with the L&M and Marlboro cigarettes.
When reading this information we also found out that statisticians think that shoes are very important for human well being and they have included 21 types of shoes in this list (for men, for women, etc.). Besides this, they have also written about expenses for repairing shoes generally, as well as repairing parts of shoes separately. It seems that they don’t know that repairing separate parts is a part of the whole process of repairing shoes generally.
There is also a section dedicated to cars. For instance, it states that the prices for Mercedes model cars have gone down by 7% this year. Anyone who has a car will laugh when reading this not because of the fact that they will not believe it, but because of the explanation. We could understand this if we were in the Soviet Union because “Volga” model cars were produced during many years without innovations and modernization. As for Mercedes company, it has many models and makes new models with new prices every year. They write about shoes in 21 sections, but present Mercedes cars and prices in one section. Besides that, they have a section dedicated to water, which they have entitled as “payments for cold water”.
Now let’s get serious and write about the gas price. The SS doesn’t have problems because it doesn’t have to conduct a research and collect information from different places. The only thing they have to do is find out information from the state commission on price regulation. It seems that everything would be clear here because we have been informed about the price changes for gas. As of April, 2005, SS makes estimations based on the prices in 2005. This price was the same in 2005 and during the first three months of this year. But if we calculate the changes that occurred in this period, we will see that the average price for gas has gone up by 14,75% (they have new prices for users that use large capacities and home users). As for SS, they write that this increase covers only 3,4% compared to last year, which can’t be explained anyway.
We understand that adding more goods to the consumer basket helps calculate inflation rates correctly. There are expenses such as telephone conversation and internet expenses that were not included in the consumer basket before. Now there are things that are missing there too. For instance now “ArmRusGazard” takes money for installing gas facilities for citizens and almost all families pay this amount. Perhaps this sum shouldn’t really be included in the consumer basket, but we think that it is more important than chewing gums, car washing and driving services. It is worth mentioning that the SS also added one more ridiculous service, which is very amazing: barbeque delivery.
In a word, it’s wonderful to have statistics.