I don’t think there is any doubt that the Karabagh conflict won’t be resolved before the 2008 Armenian presidential elections. Armenians and Azerbaijani don’t doubt it, but perhaps the OSCE Minsk group co-chairmen do a little. However, nobody really pays attention to their doubts. They can doubt all they want and try to find new ways of resolving the conflict; Kocharyan is still going to stick to his word.
Didn’t Kocharyan say that Karabagh and the seized territories belonged to Armenia when he first came to power back in 1998? He did. At least Kocharyan can recall what he said when the time comes for him to step down from office and nobody will say that Armenia didn’t go along with his schemes. It’s okay that it hurt Armenia and the people of Karabagh and helped Kocharyan during the past eight years; the important thing is the man’s image.
That image will remain even after Kocharyan ends his second term in April 2008. The next president will have the same image. What does Kocharyan have that the next president of Armenia doesn’t have to take better steps towards resolving the Karabagh conflict (which will have lasted 20 years by 2008)? Even if he tries to do anything, Kocharyan’s 10-year reign and the past events will set the next president into a trap.
In this context, I believe that it’s rather interesting to hear what Garnik Isagulyan, the adviser to the president (I think national security adviser) said a couple of weeks ago. He said that Kocharyan is not going to be a presidential candidate for the third time or prime minister and that he is going to be busy doing more important things. I’m sure the reader already guessed that he is not going to do what head of the chess federation does-praise Armenia’s victory and dance the kochari in “Freedom” square, or be head of the “One Nation, One Culture; One Economy and Two Citizenships” pan-Armenian consortium.
The former president of Armenia…No, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We still have the 2007 parliamentary elections. The newly founded and rapidly developed “Prosperous Armenia” party will seize half of the National Assembly during the elections. The other half will go to the Republican party and the number one MP will be Serge Sargsyan. The “Union for Armenia” party, founded by the prosecutor’s office, will help the Republicans by pretending to balance the “Prosperous Armenia” party. The reader who has seen the movie with the character “Kozleyevich” will ask “What about Kozleyevich?” In order to answer the reader’s question, the reader must first mention which Kozleyevich he is talking about-the opposition, the ARF, the United Labor Party or “Rule of Law”? I hope that the reader doesn’t mean the “Justice” alliance, “National Unity” party, and the “Intellectuals +18-8” union. They are already in the past.
The unified ARF will come out victorious after the elections by surpassing the 5% limit. Even if it doesn’t, it’s okay because there is always a need for good criticism. There is also a need for political parties such as the United Labor Party and “Rule of Law”, which will probably join the “Modesty” alliance and get the next 5%.
Based on an agreement, the new chairman of the National Assembly will be former minister of defense Serge Sargsyan. The Prime Minister of Armenia will be the candidate from “Prosperous Armenia” whom Serge Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan both trust. He could be Arkadi Ghukasyan, who will no longer serve his term as president of Karabagh.
After the elections, we get closer to the 2008 presidential elections. In the beginning of the campaign, Garnik Isagulyan will make a speech and say that electing Tigran Karapetyan could threaten Armenia’s national security. Sos Sargsyan, Alvart Petrosyan, representatives of creative unions, youth organizations and student councils will also make speeches about this. As a result, the people will get closer to TV star Tigran Karapetyan. During a public meeting with few gatherers, Aram Karapetyan will finally get to show his certificate that he received from one of the Russian FBI agents. On the same day, Tigran Karapetyan will announce live on his ALM television:
“I have a hundred of those certificates and the last one was signed by Serge Sargsyan.”
Note: he’s an oppositionist and he can say anything.
The only person who will be able to win Tigran Karapetyan, who has a very high reputation, will be father of complementary politics Vartan Oskanyan.
“You have to think about good governance before selecting”-this is what Oskanyan will say.
This reasonable statement will reduce the number of voters that Tigran Karapetyan has. In a word, the former minister of foreign affairs will win, while Tigran Karapetyan, being the gentleman he is, will simply congratulate the new president elected by the people.
Armenian presses will write that complementary politics finally established itself in Armenia because of the 2007-08 elections.
Now let’s get back to Armenia’s leader, who will have ended his ten-year term in 2008. After Kocharyan’s short break, the “Prosperous Armenia” party will hold an out-of-turn meeting and based on the votes of the majority of party members, Robert Kocharyan will be elected as chief secretary of the civil bureau of Armenia. Kocharyan will then be, as Garnik Isagulyan said, more than a president or prime minister. The Kocharyan-Sargsyan pair will continue ruling the country, while Vartan Oskanyan will have a hard time putting new methods of resolving the Karabagh conflict on the table.
It is worth mentioning that for the first time in the past 20 years, the elections will take place without the help of any member of Armenia’s Committee on the Karabagh Movement (“Karabagh” committee). The legislative and executive government branches of Armenia will be the Russian and American perfect, dual citizenships.