Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanyan has announced that if Azerbaijan
continues to move the Karabagh peace settlement negotiations to another
level, Armenia may look over its orientation towards the whole
settlement. This can be considered as sensational. The following is
what that announcement means. If Azerbaijan tends on solving separate
issues concerning the Karabagh conflict out of the framework of the
European Security and Cooperation Organization in the UN’s chief
assembly, then we will either refuse participating in the negotiations
or insist that Nagorno Karabagh take part also. Basically, this is a
final decision. A decision, which can be perceived as a reply not only
to Azerbaijan’s daily changing orientation, but also to the pressure
put on by foreign countries towards Armenia. The thing is that Armenia
has no alternative. Kocharyan can not let the pressure continue because
in that case he will receive less than what was possible in 1997 and
the country will face serious interpolitical problems. All we need to
do is have a strong orientation and get ready for war. Kocharyan is
doing just that but not for the reason that that is the best solution
to the Karabagh conflict, but rather because that is one way of
maintaining his rule for a while. In a word, Kocharyan no longer has
anything to say to the international public and all the steps taken by
him are strictly limited to the interpolitical arena. Two days ago
Kocharyan visited some military bases. He was officially informed that
they were “military bases on the border.” From this we can predict that
those borders were probably Armenia’s borders. But all the television
networks were showing the flags of Nagorno Karabagh on top of the bases
and Kocharyan was accompanied not only by Serj Sargsyan, but also the
Defense Minister of Nagorno Karabagh. Of course, this was just another
PR act by the President (the President greets the soldiers of the
region and is interested in how they feel, checks up on the trenches,
goes around the buffet, etc.) he wanted to freshen up the
“President-Soldier” character.
But this was also foreseen for the foreign world too. From that point
of view, neither the waving of Karabagh’s flag nor Seyran Ohanyan’s
accompaniment was in any way casual. The purpose of the visit was to
assure the other side that we are not afraid of war, that our army is
armed and ready, and that in case a war starts again with Azerbaijan,
we will put aside all conventionalities and fight until the end.
However, can we really show such elegance? A long time ago Austria’s
emperor was suggesting that Italy fight against the revolution with a
“iron hand, but a violet glove.” Hopefully we will not have the
opposite-a violet hand and a metal glove.
Generally, “we must not visit other military bases to get a total
glimpse of how ready we are for war. In order to do that, all one has
to do is take a look at Yerevan’s streets to see how many generals go
around with their Jeeps, generals who have absolutely no right to be in
Yerevan and are obligated to be in their assigned sites. Seriously, how
can a military corps be prepared for war when the commander spends
weeks going around Yerevan in some Hummers. How can an army show its
readiness when the average weight of one general is 150 kilograms and
there is no sign of intelligence on anyone’s face? These types of
generals can go to Latin America and control the coffee and marijuana
plantations, but they are not able to command an army. So, it seems
that the citizens of Armenia misinterpret the “Get ready for war if you
want peace” slogan. They refer to it as a game, meaning that they want
a war, but the army acts as though there is no danger of restarting a
war.