Today, Georgia is the most important cosmopolitan factor in the Southern Caucasus region, especially in this period of rising conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But Georgia is one of the post-Soviet countries of the region with the most issues. The poor inter-ethnic relations inside Georgia, of which everyone used to talk about back in the Soviet era, have really taken their toll in the country. Now, Abkhazians and Osetians claim that they are not preparing to live with Georgia based on any kind of status. Georgia is currently in the most complicated state and is facing contradicting problems, if not near destruction.
What is the country thinking about doing in order to get out of this complicated situation? What resources does it have? We would like to know about the time resource, state mechanism, financial or economic resources, allies, strategic power and demographical resources. It seems as though we can’t express positive opinions about any one of the abovementioned.
The past years of independence showed that Georgia, pressed by its continuous errors and history, keeps trying to find its place in regional issues, to maneuver among the regional countries by trying to come up with settlements for the Armenian-Azerbaijani or other Southern Caucasus conflicts. But that’s not the case. Georgia is trying to take advantage of the hardships that the neighboring countries have faced and use that as important signs of criminality as an observer. This is helping the country for the time being because there are many new international organizations coming into the light and they don’t know much about what’s going on; they are not looking at things deeply. After all, we still have the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, Turkey’s orientations towards Armenia and Russia, which have no outlooks (including the blockade and supporting the Chechnya conflict). Here is where we come up with the price that Armenia has to pay for going towards Russia, Europe or Turkey through Georgia. Thus, we see the price Georgia sets for Turkey or, let’s say, Russia. After all, doesn’t Russia have some responsibilities to fulfill as Armenia’s strategic ally…? At the same time, a price is set for Armenia. This all leads to the fact that the latter, as well as other important factors, make each side think about its value. Question: does Georgia really want Armenia to have good relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan and under what conditions can those relations actually benefit Georgia? It’s clear that Armenia, which has intimate economic ties with Russia on the one hand and uses Georgia’s harbors on the other hand since it has no exit to the sea, depends on Georgia’s capricious acts. On the other hand, we have the Baku-Jeyhan oil route, which has started bringing dividends to Georgia. This is all working in favor of Georgia and gives the country the opportunity to maneuver its relations with Turkey, Azerbaijan, Russia, as well as Armenia. But the question is what kind of maneuver and for what. We can’t really find a clear answer to this. Georgia is playing a game, but what game is that? Does it wish to enter NATO? But there’s nothing wrong with that. Turkey, which is already a member of NATO, is on Georgia’s side. This is not the problem. The question is how the relations between Georgia and Armenia and Georgian Armenians will be, when Georgians are “fixing” their demographic situation by merging Armenians by force.
Does Georgia have enough time to solve these issues? I think it has very little time. However, it’s quite possible that Georgia will do everything it can to create obstacles for solving those issues based on its national interests. On the other hand we have Europe, which is busy with the issues concerning the Caucasus, and is hurting Georgia’s interests because Abkhazia and Osetia have legally declared themselves out of Georgia.
Ajaria is the independent Muslim country from where, during the Soviet era, Tbilisi was trying to deport the Ajarians to the ethnically problematic regions of Metskhet and Javakhet, where it tried to merge them. Ajaria allures Turkey and it can become an easy soil for Turkey if all goes well. Turkey has experience in doing that not only in the past, but even now with Cyprus.
One time, a Western journalist told me:
“If we change the structure of the world just a little, we will see that Georgia plays a larger role in the world today than in the past.”
I don’t fully justify this opinion. After all, Stalin was born in Gori but Georgian? In fact, Georgia owes a lot to Stalin for the territory that it has today.
Russia
Russia is the country, which created Georgia based on the constitutional conditions that Georgian authorities currently want to keep. What’s more, Russia has given Georgia, as well as Armenia, the chance to get their independence back in the past. As poet Osip Mandelschtam said once, Russia has never instilled its values in Georgia. Georgia has only been “Russianized” administratively. The poet adds that Georgia has never had a problem with Russia playing a role in Georgian culture. But Georgia depends economically on Russia, starting from the energy sector all the way to the Georgian wines and kitchen “brands”. Stalin plays a huge role here, without Stalin, Georgia’s wine, the “Borzhom”, Georgian national cuisine, national dances and the “Sulikon” wouldn’t be that well-known. The huge economy of the USSR collapsed in Georgia too and we won’t even try analyzing that. Georgia can’t even develop in the tourism field without Russian tourists. However, currently, that will only be possible if Turkey allows it. After all, it may lose hundreds of thousands of dollars…
Let’s not forget that Russia, just like any other great power, has its interests. During the hard times of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the presidency of Shevardnadze, Georgia was trying to play games, which Russia obviously didn’t like. That game didn’t work out as soon as Sahakashvili came to power (let’s remember his visit to Moscow in order to befriend Putin) and it was clear that the supremacy was outlined and a conflict was evident. But countries like the U.S. or Europe won’t hurt their relations with Russia because of Georgia. In that case, who should protect Georgia’s interests outside of Georgia?-the Georgian Diaspora? The largest Georgian Diaspora is in Russia and it’s hard to say just how it’s going to protect Georgia’s interests. Georgia, after all, receives most of its financial resources from the Georgian community in Russia.
Russia doesn’t have a planned-out politics for the Southern Caucasus region. But that doesn’t stand in the way of Russia to consider Georgia leaving towards Europe and the U.S. and take certain measures in order to have an influence on the country, judging from the hatred of Georgian authorities. This is the reality of it all.
Now let’s talk a little about the new player in the region. Iran is on the playing field and it is announcing its goals both in the region, as well as the whole world. This fact widens the spectrum of the region’s borders, at the same time makes countries of the Southern Caucasus, Russia, Turkey, Syria and others think about correcting their orientations. Only time will show just how will the relations be between Iran and the other countries of the region during the new president’s reign. But amongst all this, Russia plays its role and this may be rather interesting and promising.