The upcoming gas price increase will have a direct influence on the prices for all goods and public services. Many are of the opinion that this will serve as a firm basis for the opposition to encourage the people to stand up and take action, especially since the newly founded opposition parties claim that it is wrong to participate in the 2007 parliamentary elections.
What effect will the gas price increase have on the internal political life of Armenia? This was one of the many topics that “168 Hours” talked about with former Prime Minister of Armenia and defense minister and leader of the National Democratic Union (NDU) Vazgen Manukyan.
– It’s a fact that the gas price increase will have an effect on prices for all goods. Of course, prices will not double for every item. In any case, it will deepen the social/economic status. Besides that, the gas price increase will hurt our industry because after that it may seem absurd to produce so many products, the number of unemployment may rise and as a result, there will be more tension inside the country.
– Some are of the opinion that this will serve as a firm basis for the opposition to take action and start a new movement. However, based on the behavior of the opposition, you get the impression that it is waiting for outside forces to signal the right time instead of taking the initiative.
– Everyone thinks that the opposition consists of people with the same mentalities. It’s not like that. In reality, the people are the opposition for the authorities. I think that if we took a survey, we would see that 90 percent of the people are against the present day authorities. But the opposition members tend to differ in thoughts and opinions. That’s why I would like to not talk about the opposition as a whole. As for being active, I don’t think it’s right to consider the right moment to start a movement whenever the country’s situation gets bad. However, I must say that the internal political life is going to get tense. Who is going to suffer that tension? They are constantly going to say that this is all Russia’s fault. Of course, part of the blame is on Russia, but the rest is on the authorities. They call Russia our strategic ally, but can’t come up with strategies. On the contrary, they just call it strategy in order to keep power and earn some money. It’s obvious that the people will go against the authorities. But in many countries, whenever there is social tension, laws are passed that don’t benefit society. For example, that’s exactly what’s going on in France. Then you have the demonstrations which, are not organized by political parties, but rather by the people who are defending their rights. Different levels of society start to revolt and the opposition can then use that for its purposes. That revolt is not caused by the opposition. There have to be some levels, unions, student unions which have to raise their issues. The political parties can only lend a helping hand. But I repeat- I am not in favor of the principle that the worse a country is, the better for the opposition and that that will result in a big wave. The current situation at hand is so complicated that anytime would be a good time to start a movement. If the opposition really wants to start a wave, then it can do that.
– It’s quite possible that Armenians be the ones taking the initiative and standing up for our rights.
– There is a difference in mentalities here. For example, we have high oil prices in the world market. It’s obvious that the price for benzene will also go up. Workers in some countries stand up and demand that their authorities do everything they can to make sure the price doesn’t go up for them. At first sight, it seems as though what they are doing is absurd because international prices don’t depend on the given country’s authorities. People are used to throwing the blame on the authorities for whatever happens. It’s different with Armenians. They will blame the authorities whenever they are in a bad situation, but at the same time, each citizen will try to work it out on his own and get along.
– As former defense minister, do you think that war is inevitable what with all the ceasefire violations going on in the Armenia-Karabagh-Azerbaijan border?
– I don’t think that it’s real to resolve a conflict when Azerbaijan doesn’t want to resolve anything and wants to go back where we started from. Negotiations can’t go on like that. Azerbaijan sometimes announces that it has to get Karabagh back through war, but only time will show whether or not they will actually take that step. But I am certain that Azerbaijan will not be able to start a war anytime soon nor do I think that it will get much from it. War is a great risk. It’s not like the government decides to declare war and goes ahead with it. The society and the army must be ready for that. It’s a huge risk. In 1994, they tried to turn things around when they found out that they had lost, but they failed. On the other hand, Azerbaijan hasn’t lost its diplomacy. Azerbaijan estimates that it can increase its oil resources in the years to come and will be able to cooperate with more countries in the future, so it won’t really rush into war. That’s why I think that the shootings on the border are nothing extraordinary.
– You say that Azerbaijan hasn’t lost its diplomacy. What about Armenia? Have we lost it?
– We must understand that there will be no resolution in the near future. Azerbaijan wants something that’s impossible. It wants Karabagh to be a part of Azerbaijan. That’s the same thing as Germany demanding Prussia’s lands from Poland in 1960 when World War II was already over. It’s not like the war is over and then one of the sides voluntarily hands over a territory to the other.
– So, each side has to make compromises. Are both sides ready for compromises?
– Both sides can make compromises if Azerbaijan agrees that Karabagh is out of Azerbaijan. But since it hasn’t declared that, how can we even talk about compromises? When Heydar Aliev was president, he made it so the people realized that Karabagh is long gone. It was then that the negotiations could have had some kind of result. But why has Azerbaijan changed its mind? It’s either because of different presidents, or mentalities of people have simply changed. But I think that Azerbaijan really just relies on its economic and oil resources. On the other hand, they have realized that Karabagh is an independent state, although the whole world doesn’t think that way. In order for Azerbaijani to accept that, Armenia must make a lot of effort, in other words, increase economic competition.
– Nowadays, Iran and U.S. are in tense relations. Do you think that the U.S. will take this opportunity to resolve the Karabagh conflict once and for all? Some people are of the opinion that the Karabagh conflict resolution is not only necessary for peace in the region, but also for the presence of U.S. military troops on the Iranian border.
– Armenians really exaggerate when they say that the situation we are all in depends on some cosmopolitan powers. It’s not like that. We underestimate what it really means to be independent. That’s why we easily agree to many things. But I really don’t think that the U.S. will declare war on Iran. Sure, there will be tensions, but no war. War will simply be fatal for the U.S. because in that case, it will strike one match and start a fire. Iran is not Afghanistan or Iraq. Iran is a totally different country. Besides being a great power, Iran has some sense to yield, then go, and then make a final decision. I think that the U.S. and Iran will keep playing in this game. As for the allocation of peacekeeping forces on the border, the U.S. can have that kind of intention but that shouldn’t be taken advantage of. I must say that I myself am against the allocation of peacekeeping forces. But that’s a different story.