The previous analysis-proposals by the IAG were not accepted by Armenian citizens. They were mainly considered as “proposals that don’t benefit Armenia”. There were even rumors flying around that the IAG is financed by the Turkish government. In the recent analysis-proposal, the IAG experts propose the following: “The Southern Caucasus conflicts endanger EU security.” The IAG calls on all countries of the region to resolve the conflicts as soon as possible.
Experts say that the “new neighbors” of the EU are currently in a “no war, no peace status,” and add that the EU’s reputation will go down if it doesn’t accomplish its goal of securing all the countries within the union. According to the experts, if the Southern Caucasus regional conflicts keep heating up, wars may start and the EU will not be able to handle that. Director of the European projects of the IAG Nicholas White is especially of this opinion. The director of the IAG Southern Caucasus branch Sabina Freizer, in turn, believes that Brussels has just started to get active in the field, has taken some promising steps, but it has a long way to go.
“The EU’s political activity and financial aid in the region is minimal, compared to the U.S., Russia and the OSCE. The EU may also be looked at as a subjective observer, which doesn’t participate in the struggle along with U.S. and Russia,” states the analysis. The authors also believe that the EU can encourage the three countries of the Southern Caucasus with better outlooks for European integration. According to the IAG, the EU has to combine efforts with the OSCE and the UN to help resolve the regional conflicts. The analysis also states that the EU won’t propose Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan to join the union any time soon. Although the EU helps the countries, however it also has to set some prerequisites and have more influence. The analysts are of the opinion that this will help further increase the role that the EU plays in the region, especially if the peaceful resolutions of the conflicts are considered as cooperation. As for the Karabagh conflict, the IAG experts expect to see more activity.
“The negotiations have ceased and the situation is getting worse by the day,” say the analysts who suggest the OSCE Minsk Group to get ready “to keep the peace in case of inevitable events” instead of sitting and waiting for some agreement between the negotiating sides. According to the IAG analysts, the EU must help resolve the conflict with the compromise principle and believe that it would be preferable for the EU representative to take part in the OSCE Minsk Group negotiations as an observer.
“We must have European Committee delegations in Yerevan and Baku. The EU has to spread the word about the EU, European values, institutions, projects and the outlooks for regional conflict resolutions. In order to get a total picture of the situation in the region, the EU has to commission civil and military missionaries, which will help the negotiation process. Armenia and Azerbaijan must be prepared to resolve the conflict peacefully and do it soon,” say the IAG experts and propose a variant for the Karabagh conflict resolution. According to that, the “seized territories must slowly yet surely be liberated”, they must get the refugees back, open the transportation and trade routes and decide the final status of Karabagh through a referendum. The IAG also proposes allocating peacekeeping forces in Karabagh and the surrounding areas. Besides that, they propose allocating civil missionaries, which will be involved in solving political, human rights issues, as well as issues with the press.
“Both Armenia and Azerbaijan must team up with the governments and NGOs and take steps towards coming to terms, gain mutual trust and understand each other,” say the IAG analysts. They also believe that the Armenian government has to convince the Karabagh authorities to adopt the abovementioned principles.
“The individual projects within the framework of the EU “Neighborhood Policy” will help the conflicting countries to establish democracy, protect human rights, set legislation, and conduct free and fair elections,” say the analysts in closing.