People are expressing more and more pessimistic views concerning the Karabagh peace settlement. Neither the Armenian nor the Azeri side expects to see the two leaders come to terms regarding the principles durign the meeting. Even the two negotiatiors claim that this meeting will barely lead to a positive outcome.
In general, nobody knows just what the two leaders will discuss is kept a secret. However, recently the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Vartan Oskanyan announced that there is a one page document laid out on the table, discussing the main principles by which the Karabagh conflict will be resolved and supposedly the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan are finally going to agree on those principles.
There is something which is not quite possible. For example, just days before the meeting in Rambuye, Paris, President Kocharyan announced that he was not too optimistic about the meeting after hearing the announcements made by Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov. Armenian authorities are also not too optimistic.
Although Robert Kocharyan is not too optimistic after hearing those announcements, however, chief administrator of the Armenian National Movement political party Ararat Zurabyan tends to differ.
“I don’t expect anything in particular, but I do hope that the two sides come to an agreement. However, I don’t think that it depends on outside forces to come to an agreement, and not Armenia and Azerbaijan entirely,” said Ararat Zurabyan during an interview with “168 hours” yesterday. According to him, the important thing here is how Russia looks at all this.
“If Russia gets in the way, in that case, I think that the two sides will come to an agreement sooner. Russia is definitely getting in the way because Russia benefits from all the conflict in the region, including the conflict in Abkhazia, Osetia and Karabagh,” says A. Zurabyan. He belives that if the Karabagh conflict is resolved, then Russia will no longer have anything to do in the region. As a result, the countries in favor of prolonging the conflict will have nothing to do with Russia and will no longer be under Russia’s influence.
Leader of the Armenain Liberal Progressive Party Hovhannes Hovhannisyan also shares this opinion.
“Unfortunately, that’s just the way it is. If the conflict is resolved, then it will be absurd to have Russia in the Southern Caucasus region. Russia will not play any major role in the region. Russia is not helping the countries in the region economically or integrating them. Throughout the course of time, it became clear that Russia doesn’t support the countries economically,” says Mr. Hovhannisyan. However, on the other hand, he is of the opinion that the negotiating sides can not keep going on like this.
“The negotiations have come to a point where neither of the sides, nor other countries for that matter, can tolerate oral negotiations. These negotiations have come to the point where both presidents have to agree on the principles and sign on the dotted line. It is then that the Karabagh peace settlement will start. Kocharyan and Aliev must face the reality,” says H. Hovhannisyan.
Pro-Russian political figures don’t agree with these point of views. Leader of the “New Times” political party Aram Karapetyan believes that Russia is not only interested in the regional conflicts.
“We could say that in the beginning of the 90s,” he says.
According to him, Russia is doing its best to make sure that nothing goes wrong in the Southern Caucasus and that each country lives peacefully. In his opinion, the presidents will not come to terms during the meeting in Rambuye.
“The agreement made in Warsaw were quickly put on paper. It’s one thing to agree on something orally, and another to put that on paper. That is why the proposals made are just proposals,” says the leader of “New Times”. The only thing left to do is wait until the end of the negotiations.