It seems as though the optimistic views about the Karabagh peace settlement this year are starting to become pessimistic. Whereas before international organizations used to say that 2006 would be a year for a settlement, recently there are many opinions stating that there is a “chance” and they have to look for the “right moment”. “168 Hours” interviewed former press speaker for the first president of the Armenian Republic Levon Ter-Petrosyan, analyst for the International Crisis Group (ICG) and politician Levon Zurabyan.
– I am not as optimistic about the peace settlement as the international organizations and the negotiating sides are. I think that it will be very hard to come to terms until the people of Karabagh are not involved in the negotiations. Besides that, the conflict is very complicated and it is getting even more complicated. It was one thing to resolve the conflict back in 1994, another thing to resolve it back in 1997 and a totally different thing when we look at the peace settlement now. To tell you the truth, there is a struggle among leaders. The negotiating sides must be serious state figures in order to make the compromises-state figures like Charles De Gal and Rabin.
– What are your expectations for the Kocharyan-Aliev meeting to take place in Paris on February 10? Do you think that the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan will sign a document concerning the peace settlement?
– I don’t think they will sign anything. We are talking about a one page document which has to become a guideline for the future conflict negotiations. These kinds of documents are not signed, but rather, both sides simply come to terms. If both presidents come to terms, then this means that there is progress. But that is not a peace treaty.
– Is there a chance that the West will pressure both countries so that something does get signed by the end of the year?
– We have to understand what it means to pressure. In many cases, both the West and other countries that have taken on the role of an observer, have learned from experience that pressure can lead to negative consequences and can deepen the conflict. I don’t think that the observers will add much pressure, if of course, they want to establish peace.
– According to many, the principles set forth by the ICG, Jane’s Group and other well-known international organizations are put up for negotiations. They are doing that in order to see what the people think.
– I don’t think so. Obviously, when there is a political process and when both the sides and observers are actually interested in reaching a climax, the NGOs start to get more interested. They try to help the situation get better by analyzing and keeping in touch with the societies of both sides. But I am totally against the idea that NGOs speak on behalf of bigger countries and try to force the societies to go along with their point of views. They are simply trying to plan out the schemes needed to resolve the conflict and perhaps point them out to the real decision makers.
– Neither Armenia nor Karabagh accepted ICG’s reports and they considered it as “against Armenia”. What do you think about this evaluation?
– They keep saying “not in favor of Armenia”. Haven’t you heard of “not in favor of Azerbaijan”? This is natural. In general, no peace settlement plan can be ideal and accepted by all sides because in this case, this is going to be based on compromises. The ICG also has defects. However, I think that the most important thing is that ICG’s speeches made the world take a closer look at the conflict and they created the first international document, according to which there is an idea of legitimizing an independent Karabagh. This is all going on when the world had forgotten about Karabagh and both sides were talking about Armenia occupying the lands in Azerbaijan. The ICG plans on coming up with a mechanism which will lead to an independent Karabagh.
– Will Karabagh reach independence?
– No, it will not reach independence now but maybe in the future. Today, the only important thing is maintaining the status, which will keep Karabagh out of the control of Azerbaijan, be recognized by the world (which is planned out by the ICG) and fight for independence in peaceful conditions.
– Although the present day authorities do not accept former Armenian president Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s proposal to lead the negotiations in stages, however, today they will have to use that.
– If we look at this from the formal perspective, we are still dealing with the negotiations through stages. A packet solution means solving the conflict by coming to terms concerning the Karabagh status. However, there is no longer a packet solution.
– If the conflict resolution continues like this, do you think it is possible that a war will restart?
– There are estimations showing that Azerbaijan’s military expenses continue to rise and if they use those weapons rationally, the Azeri can be more powerful than Armenia and Karabagh in a matter of years. It is clear that Azerbaijan will strive to get what it wants and there will be a higher chance for war year by year. But will that really lead to war? It is still too early to predict anything, although it is possible. After all, wars are not about showing off military techniques and are unpredictable. We are dealing with ventures which may lead to an uncertain future.
– Is it possible that foreign powers will start a war? Many people are talking about the fact that if Russian forces are not allocated in Karabagh along with the peacekeeping forces, then Russia will be interested in starting a war.
– I don’t think that it is mandatory to allocate peacekeeping forces at the present. Of course, foreign countries consider that important and are leading negotiations for that. But the conflicting sides don’t consider that that important. The Armenian and Azeri sides care about the resolution-the Karabagh status and other issues. First, they must solve the conflict and then solve the issue concerning the international peacekeeping forces. These solutions will only serve as methods of signing a peace treaty.
– In 1998, the Karabagh conflict was brought up as an excuse for the overturn in power in Armenia. If the present day Armenian authorities resolve the conflict in even worse conditions now than the former authorities could back in 1997, then what are the former authorities going to do?
– In my opinion, the final decision must be made based on politics and the country’s interests. I don’t think that the former authorities will agree to negotiate in even worse conditions, however, if there will be solutions corresponding to the principles set forth before, then I think that it is necessary to leave politics aside and lead the peace settlement to an end.
– How will the Karabagh conflict negotiations affect Armenia’s internal political life if both sides come to terms?
– The negotiations will have a huge affect. I don’t want to predict anything but this will affect Armenia a lot and politics will change in the country. The county will be split between the people who want peace and the people who are in favor of continuing the conflict. I don’t think we should discuss this topic because I don’t see any serious prerequisite yet.