During an interview with journalists a couple of days ago, President of Russia Vladimir Putin touched upon some issues of which the most important for Armenia was Russia’s orientation of the conflicts going on in the region. Vladimir Putin stated that the UN Security Council must go along with universal principles when determining the future of Kosovo and there can’t be any “special” approach shown towards any conflict.
Kosovo is part of Serbia. Serbia and Chernogoria form part of modern day Southern Slovenia. The people living in Kosovo are mainly ethnic Albanians and they are trying to declare Kosovo independent. At the present, they are independent by documents. According to the 1244 resolution of the UN Security Council, Kosovo is not considered a part of Serbia and at the present forms part of Southern Slovenia (in other words, Southern Slovenia is no longer a federation consisting of two states but rather three). The NATO forces maintain security in Kosovo and the UN Security Council will soon determine the status. The West is trying to declare Kosovo independent and ruin Russia’s plans in the Balkans because, after all, Russia considers Serbia to be its “fore post” in Eastern Europe. This is why Russia is delaying Kosovo’s independence. Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, claims that if Kosovo is declared independent, then Abkhazia and Southern Osetia must also be independent.
It is clear that these “universal principles” have something to do with the Karabagh conflict. Russia is in favor of solving all the conflicts with the regional totalitarianism principle and the West is in favor of “different approaches”. At any given time, we can all these “approaches” “double standards” (the West looks differently at its accomplices and the Russian “fore posts”), but the problem remains the same.
The important thing here is that Armenia and Russia differ. Armenia has to do its best to make the UN Security Council recognize Kosovo’s independence because that will become a world event and will eventually lead up to the world recognition of Karabagh’s independence. In other words, Armenia has to put in a lot of effort to make sure Russia loses in the Russia-West battle for Kosovo.
Meanwhile, Russia is not even trying to keep its plans a secret. Of course, the Russians prefer to have a “fore post” in the center of Europe and not in Southern Caucasus. Russia is making it clear that if Serbia keeps its territorial totalitarianism, then Russia will no longer help Abkhazia and Southern Osetia. The Karabagh issue is a different issue. In any case, Karabagh has its independence and can do just fine without Russia.
It turns out that some things may change in the Southern Caucasus pretty soon. Georgia and Azerbaijan may become Russia’s “fore posts” and Armenia may start looking to the West for help. Basically, the Russian-Western “big game” will determine the foreign politics of each of the Southern Caucasus countries. This is a game where currently, Kosovo is the axle.