No matter how indifferent we are towards the leading figures of our country, it has become a tradition for us Armenians to listen to their New Year speeches; especially since the local television stations did not show anything more interesting than that.
As always, just minutes before the clock struck 12 on December 31, president of Armenia Robert Kocharyan made his speech to the people of Armenia and stated the most significant achievement of the past year-the Constitution. Many did not even want to continue listening to the speech. “We were able to maintain the pace of development during the past year. We are striving to make it so that the economic rise in the country has a direct impact on the prosperity of the people. It is clear to see that economic development is growing parallel to the social budget. There will be raises in salaries and pensions starting from January 1…” As you can see, the president is pretty optimistic.
Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan was also pretty optimistic when making his speech, but he tended to not make too many comments. He concluded his speech with the following phrase: “We have always been honest with the people; we have not made impossible or beautiful promises, but we have been able to implement anything that we have talked or planned about and presented the product. That is how it is going to continue to be.”
President of the National Assembly A. Baghdasaryan was also satisfied with the year 2005. “…we can say for sure that this year, our country had small, but important and stable progress on the path towards political, economic and social reforms.”
As a matter of fact, the NA president also stated the following as an achievement of last year: “…we finally solved the issue concerning the deposit reimbursements this year.” It is quite possible that during the 2007 parliamentary elections, the coalition members will state this fact in their booklets-considering the 2 billion dram reimbursement as the solution to the problem facing 100 thousands of people and a great achievement. As to who will be the first to get them still remains a mystery.
The National Statistics Services of Armenia has confirmed the numbers presented by the primary figures of the country and they have registered a 13.5% economic rise in the 11 months of 2005. Basically, we didn’t do so bad last year either. Product growth has been only 0.7% in the same time period. You get the impression that the statistical service is making it so that the ones making their congratulatory speeches have something to say.
What happened last year is in the past…it would be better to concentrate on what awaits us. However, we can’t speak objectively about that at the present since we still haven’t solved the gas price issue.
R. Kocharyan stated in his speech on New Years’ Eve. “Armenia continues to lead balanced foreign politics. 2006 is declared as the year of Armenia in France and Russia which is the proof of the high level of relations that we have with both countries.”
This is probably also the reason why we are the only ones that don’t know what is going to happen with the gas price. Belarus already signed a contract in December. Russia has decided everything for Georgia and Azerbaijan. The Ukrainians solved this issue too, which was considered a labyrinth. As a matter of fact, the Ukrainians will benefit more than we will. Russia kept its word and did not change the bargain price for Ukraine ($230 U.S. dollars for 1000 cubic meters). Ukraine will not buy its gas directly from “GasProm”, but rather from the “RusUkrenergo” company and will pay $95 dollars for 1000 cubic meters. At first sight, this illogical price can be explained by the fact that the $230 dollars is compensated for the cheap price set by Turkmenistan and the average price of “mixed” gas entering Ukraine is $95 dollars.
What’s interesting is that Ukrainians complain about this too. Many of Rada’s MPs consider the agreement as “slavery” and they removed Prime Minister Yekhanurov for that.
How are things going in Armenia? To make a long story short, we are in silence. By following up on current news, one gets the impression that the only thing worrying our people is the quick recovery of Ariel Sharon. However, it would be wrong to say that our authorities are not doing anything about the gas price. If they were to not do anything at all, then all the plans for 2006 would be condemned to failure. Since the gas price increase is going to lead to inflation, in that case, all predictions of seeing an economic rise, enlargement of industry and export will just be wishes. If we take into consideration the fact that 2006 is a pre-election year, in that case, nobody would like to see that kind of development.
One thing is clear: no matter how much they keep quiet and say that negotiations are still in progress, it is hard to say that Russia will change its bargain price of 110 dollars. The fact is that Armenia has to pay Russia 90 million dollars more than the previous years. The people are going to be ones paying that amount, whether directly or indirectly. Even if the government is able to “smoothly” make its way through the year, the problem for the next couple of years remains unsolved.
The Iranian gas route transaction continues to be the optimistic side of all this. Let’s recall that Armenia is going to produce electricity with Iranian gas and export it to Iran. According to specialists, Armenia will not benefit from that too much if it plans on lowering the gas price and it is hard to consider the gas route as an alternative electricity. What is mentioned frequently is the 5th block of the Hrazdan Water Supply Energy station, however, the situation here is uncertain and specialists do not have high hopes-neither for the 5th block nor the Yerevan Water Supply/Energy station at least for another couple of years. When hearing conversations regarding construction of hydroelectric stations wind/power stations, you remember the old Armenian saying that goes “Hey donkey, don’t die spring is on its way.” (“It will get better; just you wait and see”).
During a press conference held two days ago, Foreign Minister of Armenia V. Oskanyan confessed that the expression “market relations” regarding the gas price issue are just nice words which are said for the fun of it. In contrast to his threats made a couple of days ago, according to which Russia may lose its positions not only in Armenia but also in the entire region, this time the minister tried to choose his words carefully and stated that economics and politics are in intimate relations.
Mr. Oskanyan also said that the gas price still hasn’t been confirmed and that negotiations are underway. This is kind of hard to understand due to the fact that the Minister of Energy A. Movsisyan accepted the fact that Armenia and the rest of the countries in the Southern Caucasus have the same price-110 dollars for 1000 cubic meters. Everyone is convinced that negotiations are being led not for the price, but rather how to pay that money. Of course, it will be great if all the people that think that way, including us, are proved wrong and we have to pay a lower price, however that is not that possible.
As stated by Mr. Oskanyan, the issue will finally be solved during the meeting of Kocharyan and Putin. Kocharyan will leave for Moscow soon for the opening ceremony for the year of Armenia in Russia. Let’s see whether or not this upcoming meeting will be any different from the meeting that took place in Sochi in December when the two presidents were satisfied with giving abstract answers and drinking beer.
Before the New Year, president of the permanent committee on financial loans and economic issues of the National Assembly G. Minasyan asked the journalists not to get ahead of time. We are following his advice and are currently not making any predictions. We will wait for official announcements to be made. As a matter of fact, we got a reply from “ArmRusGasard”, claiming that the negotiations are still in progress; the Ministry of Energy told us that they don’t deal with gas prices, but rather the committee on public services of Armenia. The committee, however, has not received any statement about bargain prices, which means that we will not see a change in the gas price for at least another three months. On one hand, this is good and on the other, uncertainty is more dangerous. Any serious company plans out its projects for the upcoming three years, but that just doesn’t work out for us.