After the constitutional amendments referendum (not only the referendum but also the public meetings that followed and failed), the inter-political situation of Armenia changed. Of course, the authorities can gloat over the oppositionists claiming that they didn’t get what they wanted from the Western world, just like Kolya Ostenbaken got from Polish beauty Inga Zayontsits, but in reality the meetings proved one more thing: it was revealed that the authorities lacked talent. By practically having unlimited financial, propagandist and administrative resources, the authorities could not organize a fair referendum and were forced to go along with fraud. So, in a word, the authorities showed their low professionalism. Imagine a locksmith breaking the door instead of opening the lock. No matter how much the “international observers” (in this case, the neighbors) say that “in general, the door can be considered open”, we understand that the locksmith is useless from the professional point of view…whatever.
Overall, in some way the referendum reminded us of a terrorist act. It is terrorist in that everybody knows about the results, but no political force (union) has taken on the responsibility for them. Meanwhile, it had to be the opposite. If the constitutional amendments are “one step forward” and 93% of the people have gone out to vote “yes” with enthusiasm, the political forces must be the first ones to announce that they are the organizers and the ones responsible for the referendum. What is the reason for this lack of logic? The problem is that Armenia has entered the pre-election stage since November 28. We are talking about the 2007 parliamentary elections. As a matter of fact, the “game” is much bigger than in 2003, because the parliament to be formed in 2007 is going to play a more serious role and the winning political force will decide who will sit in the big chair in 2008. Basically, in reality, 2007 is not a year for parliamentary but rather presidential elections. President of “Rule of Law” (RL) political party Artur Baghdasaryan was the one that started the pre-election struggle, announcing that there were violations during the referendum. The political forces reacted as a thunderbolt. The coalition colleagues of RL, ARF and the Armenian Republican Political Party (ARPP)-evidently considered this step as betrayal, while the opposition did not accept Artur Baghdasaryan’s “reverence”, thinking that it would be better for the electoral committee members representing RL to provide concrete facts. RL’s try to present itself as “authorities-lights” (until now nobody had announced that the power of the president of the National Assembly is not practical and that it is often merely a ritual) made the ARF jealous first because the ARF had tried to do that for years.
In a word, the break-up of the coalition has begun. RL has presented its application and awaits suggestions, especially from the forces that are in a state of uncertainty. The ones that are in a state of uncertainty at the moment are Serj Sargsyan and the opposition. After 2003, the reputations of oppositionist leaders and their political parties have gone down and it doesn’t really mean that those forces will find themselves in the parliament in 2007; Serj Sargsyan himself has announced that he still hasn’t decided which political force he will join during the 2007 elections. Of course, RL realizes that it has minimum chances-the opposition will “not accept” Artur Baghdasaryan and Serj Sargsyan will prefer any stronger political party. That is why Artur Baghdasaryan is placing importance on his own forces (populism).
As for the ARF and the ARPP, these political parties are waiting and we can understand that. Since 2006 is going to be the year of putting an end to the Karabagh conflict, which the international organizations claim, then those political parties still have enough time to make their decisions. In any case, RL is not a competitor for them in this field (it is hard to imagine Artur Baghdasaryan with the slogan “No concessions for the centuries old enemy”).
One way or another, Armenia is entering a new stage of inter political developments and those developments can also be illogical. Elections are ahead and we have seen from experience that elections in Armenia (much less the results of those elections) are far from being logical.