Let’s recall that it was totally the opposite a couple of days ago. In regard to this, the Central Bank has been giving a pretty consuming and theoretically meaningful response for years now: “The exchange rate can go up or down. We don’t fix the rate.” Starting from November 15, the Central Bank uses the new structure called the Exchange where the exchange rate is calculated based on the “market” supply and demand. Basically, the Central Bank already has its reason: the fund exchange. We can conclude that the Central Bank considers it normal for the citizen or the economist to get up in the morning and see that the dollar has reduced by 5 drams and then wake up the next morning to see that it is growing at the same rate. In other words, we no longer have faith to get any realistic explanations from the Central Bank.
The evaluation of the dram at the end of the year is something that we all wait for: the flow of money transfers from abroad. But we must consider the fact that the “businessmen” have not sent their amounts of money; so this is pretty meaningless. Perhaps foreign investments have decided to grow and “flood” our banking system with foreign capital. In an unstable political season as this one, it is practically impossible. As a matter of fact, there are some opinions that the decline in the dollar rate is due to the financing of the opposition abroad. But even if we consider this opinion as theoretically possible, then that money will not really influence the exchange rate until it does not circulate in the market. Nowadays that does not work.
Fine, in that case, what is happening? Let’s look at the issue from a different perspective. Who is interested in lowering the price of foreign products? Of course, importers-not the small and medium ones, but rather big importers because only they can change the rules of the game. Let’s recall the beginning of September. The price of benzene was rising internationally, but not in the Armenian market. Instead, it was declining. Today, there is a rise in the price of international benzene and tendencies for decrease in the Armenian dollar. This means that Armenian importers benefit from not increasing prices on local products and refuse receiving large profits at the same time. In this case, the free exchange rate of the dollar “helps them out” and that rate has already gotten accustomed to how the people “go along with everything”.